23 Ağustos 2012 Perşembe

Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias, sometimes referred to colloquially as the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, is the effect whereby people think that past events were predictable, or at least more predictable than they actually were. This is because after an event, the probability of it happening is, naturally, 100%. The bias arises because people ignore the things that didn't happen or the things that didn't cause the event - known as the "availability heuristic". This allows people to point to specific causes of an event (such as a catastrophe) and ask, "Why wasn't something done about it?"

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Kaynak: http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

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